Drier in late September and early October
The rest of this week will be decidedly autumnal with periods of heavy rain or showers and strong winds. Next week, however, a drier period looks likely, except for some northern and western areas of the UK, and daytime temperatures should lift above average.
Early October looks like being relatively dry, especially in southern and eastern areas, but the weather could become wetter again right across the UK by mid-month.
Wet and windy at times
After Wednesday's very wet, windy and locally thundery conditions, Thursday will have scattered sharp showers with sunshine in between for most of the UK. Localised downpours and thunderstorms are possible, though more likely over Wales and the southern half of England. In Northern Ireland and the north and west of Scotland it will become overcast with more widespread rain moving in, accompanied by strong winds or gales.
The unsettled weather will continue throughout Friday and it will become cooler, with temperatures dipping below the September average due to brisk and gusty north-westerly winds.
There could be a drier period on Saturday, more likely in the south and east, as a high pressure ridge quickly moves across. However, more rain will soon race in, some of this heavy, accompanied by strong and blustery winds and followed by a showery airmass. Despite all that, temperatures will rise above normal on Sunday.
Becoming drier in many areas
Next week begins with some more rain or showers in most areas, but the heaviest is likely to be over western Scotland. Strong winds will continue, especially over the northern UK, due to a deep low pressure system north-west of Scotland.
Interestingly this will have the remains of hurricane Nigel wrapped into it which helps to explain the strong winds and the heavy rain between Saturday and Monday. It will also be partly responsible for pulling quite a warm airmass across the UK. High pressure over mainland Europe should build towards the UK and then drift east. This should promote drier weather as the week progresses, at least across the southern and eastern UK, with chances of some rain still affecting northern and western areas at times.
Periods of quieter weather would lead to overnight and early morning fog patches. Nights should become cooler but with winds coming from a south-west to south-easterly direction, daytime highs should be above average.
Turning wetter again by mid-October
A similar pattern is expected to continue into the first week of October, with high pressure over continental Europe and occasionally building towards the UK, while low pressure systems tend to track from the south-west between Iceland and Scotland. That should mean further outbreaks of rain in northern and western areas, but longer dry periods across the southern and eastern UK.
Daytime temperatures should be above average but the nights could be chilly and foggy in places. There are chances that some weakening frontal rain could move farther east and south across the UK but that possibility increases during the second week of October.
The main longer-range models broadly agree on low pressure developing more widely, so the further we move into October the greater the chances of more widespread wet and windy weather developing.
Temperatures should still be near or above average. The days will be cooler during periods of rain, but the nights should become milder.
We will see in the next update if this wet-dry-wet outlook still looks likely, and we will be able to take a look beyond mid-October.